A University of Chicago study estimates that India could see an additional 15,800 heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 due to the current 'Super El Niño', a term used to describe exceptionally strong El Niño conditions. The report, published on September 23, 2026, projects that global land temperatures will be 1.2°C above normal during the El Niño event, which began in June and is expected to last through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

The study, conducted by the Climate Impact Lab, warns that the current El Niño is acting as a 'postcard from our future', bringing temperatures that climate change is projected to deliver in 20 years. The report estimates that 451,000 additional deaths will occur globally during the first six months of the El Niño, with 15,800 of those in India. The authors argue that the added lead time compared to long-term climate change gives governments and humanitarian organizations a rare opportunity to act before, rather than after, deaths occur.

The study highlights that India’s risk does not taper off during the six-month forecast window. Unlike other regions, India and Pakistan are expected to see heat-related mortality continue into their summer months, as abnormally warm conditions persist. The report notes that southern India, where normal winter temperatures are already warm enough to cause heat deaths, will see a sharp increase in fatalities due to abnormal warmth layered on top.

The authors suggest that emergency response measures, such as heat early-warning systems, cooling centers, hydration stations, worker protections, and expanded health outreach, could potentially avoid tens of thousands of deaths. The study also emphasizes the need for climate mitigation efforts, particularly in the Global South, to prevent future crises.

The report acknowledges methodological limitations, including the difficulty of predicting exact numbers of deaths. It also notes that the El Niño event is expected to last up to 12 months, with the most severe impacts likely to occur in the coming months. The study calls for immediate action to prepare for the projected increase in heat-related deaths, particularly in vulnerable regions such as the Sahel in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America.

The study’s authors, including Michael Greenstone and Tamma Carleton, argue that the current El Niño provides a unique opportunity for governments to take proactive measures to save lives before the situation worsens.