India's southwest monsoon ended 12.6% below normal, marking the fourth-lowest rainfall since 2001, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The country received 759.4 mm of rain during June-September, compared to the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm. This deficit, attributed to El Niño, has raised concerns about agricultural productivity and water availability.

The monsoon season was characterized by uneven rainfall distribution, with some regions experiencing significant deficits despite late-season rains. The IMD noted that while late rains narrowed the deficit, the overall season still ended well below the LPA. Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya recorded the most severe deficits, with rainfall 41% to 44% below normal. The east and northeast regions faced a 25% deficit, while south India recorded a 23% shortfall.

El Niño conditions, which are expected to peak in November, are likely to continue influencing rainfall patterns into October and beyond. The IMD warned that most parts of the country will receive below-normal rainfall during October-December, with only some areas in northwest and southern peninsular India possibly receiving normal to above-normal rainfall. The weather agency also highlighted unusually high temperatures in September, with an average maximum of 32.05°C, the highest since 1901, and a mean temperature of 27.72°C, the fifth-highest since 1901.

The combination of poor rainfall and high temperatures has implications for soil moisture, which is critical for the winter crop season. Deepak Pareek, founder of HnbY, noted that the deficient monsoon has left large tracts of the country with inadequate soil moisture, exacerbating the risk of poor rabi sowing and crop prospects. However, the impact is expected to vary by region due to the uneven distribution of the monsoon deficit.

The IMD's final assessment comes after a late-season spell of heavy rainfall reduced the country's overall deficit, but the June-September season still ended well below its long-term average. The 2026 monsoon is the first deficient season since 2015, with the IMD classifying seasonal rainfall 10% or more below the LPA as deficient. Despite the late rains, the deficit remained significant, with 17 meteorological subdivisions covering 42% of the country's area recording deficient rainfall.

The situation remains uncertain, with the IMD forecasting continued below-normal rainfall into October and beyond. The uneven distribution of rainfall and the impact of El Niño on future weather patterns remain key uncertainties. Further monitoring of rainfall and temperature trends will be essential to assess the full implications for agriculture and water resources.